To finish first…..

Whilst going through some of the data I’m collecting for the research on both my TCF and SC projects a couple of things stood out. There were also a number of interesting figures which I would not have predicted off the top of my head. There is nothing to be read into the following points but I thought I’d share them.

The sample I am using is from the start of the 2007 season which means it includes 62 races and a total of 3770 laps! In those races we have seen……

SC: Safety Car

As I began investigating the total classified finishers markets I got to thinking about the Safety Car markets. This is another market I very rarely get involved in because I don’t believe there to be an edge. The markets should be priced up correctly using whatever stats those pricing it up feel like using – the event of a safety car is purely down to luck so if the prices are correct then you *shouldn’t* make any money in the long term.

The reason I didn’t choose the Safety Car markets as my first investigation was because it felt a bit silly looking into something I don’t believe there would be an edge in. But the more I think about it the more I realise investigating this market would be beneficial for investigating other markets. It could be the % chance of a safety car appearance has an influence on the number of cars expected to finish the race, or on the other hand it may not have anything to do with it – but it won’t hurt looking. In most cases the SC is deployed because of an accident which usually means a car has retired from the race. Therefore would it not make logical sense for tracks with high SC appearances to also have a low number of classified drivers? Or is that poor logic – would it be races with low numbers of cars reaching the flag that produce a SC appearance…..

It now makes sense for me to investigate the Safety Car (SC) market along side the Total Classified Finishers (TCF) markets. Not because I think there is a link between the two (if there is then hopefully the stats will show it – I don’t want to go into begin any of these investigations with any prejudice), but it somehow seems to make sense to do them at the same time, to collect the data and compile them together etc. In some cases it will be the same factor that has the biggest influence over the outcome. In a rain soaked race the number of finishers and SC appearance both have to be dramatically changed in their expected outcomes than compared to a dry race.

After this weeks German GP I hope to get a more meaningful post up about the markets and what my first impressions are. In the meantime, enjoy the race.