As explained in an earlier post I’m going to change the format of the blog to look into aspects of the F1 markets from a statistical point of view. I suppose my aim is to try and price up some of the markets which would therefore indicate what prices are value and those which aren’t. At the same time I will be learning/teaching myself some more complex maths to help achieve this so it’s going to be a long and slow process but I hope it will make for a more interesting blog than ‘I done this, I think his’.

The first investigation I would like to conduct needs to be simple so the maths doesn’t get too complicated and to keep it short as a little introduction. Diving straight in to looking at what price the man on pole should be is tempting but it’s never going to work – it would be trying to run before I can walk. The ‘Total Classified Finishers’ markets offer an interesting investigation as the they are more dependent on statistical data rather than any sporting ability and offer only two outcomes. The two outcomes is the biggest reason for starting with these markets as the choice of ‘Over’ or ‘Under’ make it far simpler than Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren…….

The other important reason for choosing these markets is I never play them. Not once have I ever placed a bet on a over/under X number drivers to be classified so I have no pre-conceptions or bias before I start this work. The aim is to find out:

1. What markets are available on both the exchanges and bookmakers sites?
2. Collection of data for each track for number of cars that finished in each race to gauge track specific results
3. Collection of data for each season for the number of cars that finished races to determine the reliability rates under those rules.
4. Combine the data from 2 & 3 to be left with an expected number of finishers for any race.
5. Convert the expected number of finishers into odds which relate to a particular market (for example Under/Over 16.5 Finishers).

Feel free to add in anything or opinions as we go along. Remember I’m learning as I go so I’m bound to get bits wrong!

Finally, to prevent me having to type Total Classified Finishers every time I will use TCF which will also become a sort of codename for this ‘project’. Roll on TCF !